The Braves go quiet more often when Chris Sale pitches

Aug 14, 2026 · Braves

Chris Sale threw six innings tonight, gave up one run, struck out nine, walked nobody, and lost. Atlanta managed three hits in a 2-0 shutout.

The offense goes quiet more often on his days than anyone else’s.

The Braves score two runs or fewer in 25 percent of all games this season, 31 of 122
In Sale’s 22 starts, that rate is 41 percent, 9 of 22
His average run support is 5.18, above the team’s 4.84 per game, which is why nobody notices

BRAVES

Why the average hides it

Nine starts of two runs or fewer sit next to nine of six or more. The mean lands in between and describes neither.

How much to trust it. A 9 of 22 rate against a 25 percent baseline lands at p equals 0.08. Suggestive, not proof. Twenty two starts is a small sample and splits like this regress.

One thing this does not control for is that Sale draws the other team’s best starter. Tonight it was Brandon Pfaadt, who threw seven shutout innings. Some of the 41 percent is who Atlanta is hitting against, not when.

Sources: MLB Stats API, regular season games only, pulled August 14, 2026.

Sources

MLB Stats API

12-1

when Atlanta scores three or more for Chris Sale, against 2-9 when it does not

Sep 3Braves

Atlanta scores three for Chris Sale and wins. It scores two and does not.

Atlanta is 2-9 in Chris Sale starts when it scores two runs or fewer and 12-1 when it scores three or more. He starts against Philadelphia on Friday. On August 21 this site published that split as 1-9 and it has since moved by one game.

of the seven meetings Philadelphia has to win

Sep 2Braves

Philadelphia has seven games left against Atlanta. It needs six of them.

Atlanta leads the National League East by four with 22 to play, and seven of Philadelphia's 22 are against Atlanta. That is the largest share of any chasing club in baseball. Split everything else and Philadelphia still has to win six of the seven.

2.8%

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